Mgt613 GDB No. 1 Solution-2
Monday, November 08, 2010 Posted In MGT Edit ThisQuestion: Given the weekly demand data, what are the exponential smoothing forecasts for periods 2-05 using a=0.10?
Week | Demand | 0.1 |
1 | 980 | |
2 | 825 | |
3 | 760 | |
4 | 650 | |
5 |
Note: Calculation along with the formula is required for each period's forecast. Students who give answers without calculation will be given low marks/no marks.
Ans
Formula
Ft= Ft-1 + a (At-1 – Ft-1)
Ft = Forecast value for the coming time period
F t−1 = Forecast value in 1 past time period
At−1 = Actual occurrence in the 1 past time period
α = Alpha smoothing constant
Week | Demand | 0.1 | Calculations |
1 | 980 | 980 | =980+.10(0) = 980 |
2 | 825 | 980 | =980+.10(980-980) =980+.10 (0) =980 |
3 | 760 | 964.50 | =980+.10(825-980) =980+.10(-155) =980-15.5 =964.50 |
4 | 650 | 944.05 | =964.50+.10 (760-964.50) =964.50 +.10 (-204.5) =964.50 – 20.45 =944.05 |
5 | 914.645 | = 944.05+.10(650-944.05) =944.05 +.10(-294.05) =944.05 – 29.405 =914.645 |
.................
Question: Given the weekly demand data, what are the exponential smoothing forecasts for periods 2-05 using a=0.10?
Week Demand 0.1
1 980
2 825
3 760
4 650
5
Note: Calculation along with the formula is required for each period's forecast. Students
Answer
First of all we solve the equation according to the formula of the exponential smoothing which is given below
Ft = Ft-1 + a(At-1 - Ft-1)
Week Demand 0.1
1 980
2 825
3 760
4 650
5
Note: Calculation along with the formula is required for each period's forecast. Students
Answer
First of all we solve the equation according to the formula of the exponential smoothing which is given below
Ft = Ft-1 + a(At-1 - Ft-1)
Now put all the value into the table which is given below
Week Demand 0.10
1 980 980
2 825 980
3 760 964.5
4 650 944.05
5 914.65
Week Demand 0.10
1 980 980
2 825 980
3 760 964.5
4 650 944.05
5 914.65
............
