Mgt503 GDB No. 1 Spring 2012 Solution
Wednesday, April 25, 2012 Edit This.........................................
Some more helping Material::::
1. Certainty
We experience certainty about a specific question when we have a feeling of complete belief or complete confidence in a single answer to the question.
Decisions such as deciding on a new carpet for the office or installing a new piece of equipment or promoting an employee to a supervisory position are made with a high level of certainty.
While there is always some degree of uncertainty about the eventual outcome of such decisions there is enough clarity about the problem, the situation and the alternatives to consider the conditions to be certain.
2. Uncertainty
A decision under uncertainty is when there are many unknowns and no possibility of knowing what could occur in the future to alter the outcome of a decision. We feel uncertainty about a situation when we can't predict with complete confidence what the outcomes of our actions will be. We experience uncertainty about a specific question when we can't give a single answer with complete confidence.
Launching a new product, a major change in marketing strategy or opening your first branch could be influenced by such factors as the reaction of competitors, new competitors, technological changes, changes in customer demand, economic shifts, government legislation and a host of conditions beyond your control.
These are the type of decisions facing the senior executives of large corporations who must commit huge resources.
The small business manager faces, relatively, the same type of conditions which could cause decisions that result in a disaster from which he or she may not be able to recover.
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The Decision making situation is “Certainty” because of the following reasons or arguments.
> The business line is inactive.
> Product having old fashion.
> Product could not change the market demand & trends.
> Manager having the clearness and experience about the business line.
> Manager is reasonably sure about what would be happened when they make a decision. The information is available and is considered to he reliable, and the cause and effect relationships are known.
In a situation of “Uncertainty”, on the other hand, people have only a meager data base, they do not know whether or not the data are reliable, and they are very unsure about whether or not situation may change. Moreover, they cannot evaluate the interactions of the different variables.
In a “Risk” situation, factual information may exist, but it may be incomplete. To improve decision making, one may estimate the objective probabilities of an outcome by using, for example, mathematical models. On the other hand, subjective probability, based on judgment and experience, may be used.
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Risk: Risk occurs whenever we cannot predict an alternative’s outcome with certainty, but we do have enough information to predict the probability it will lead to the desired state.
> now if you see the given situation, there has been given enough info, which is the characteristic of risk not uncertainty.
> goal is clear "to revive the product line as well as to increase the market share". this is also the characteristic of risk situation.
> as the market trend is changing highly so there is uncertainty, as written in chapter 15. risk is characterized by the uncertainty in outcome, mentioned in chapter 15.
> in uncertainty and risk the outcome is uncertain, but the difference is that in uncertainty situation outcome can not be estimated, but in risk the probability or chance can be estimated by looking into the market trend, which is uncertain and highly risky.
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Solution:
Global is faced with the dilemma of an inactive business line. The product line was launched are old and the company did not respond to changing demands and trends. As a result, their business suffered heavy losses.
And there is risk that the news Business will be a successful venture or not. So there is high uncertainty in this situation but a little hope that company can re-establish itself with new IT product.